| Resource Type | Article |
| Author / Source | Jon Rea (RMI) |
| Publication Date | October 2025 |
| Location | United States |
| Initiative Type | Policy, Technology, Program |
| Project Complexity | Intermediate |
| Recommended For | Staff, Board |
Estimated reading time: 30+ minutes
Why This Matters for Rural Electric Co-ops
This quarterly IRP tracker provides rural electric cooperative leaders with a current, data-driven picture of where U.S. utility planning stands, which includes rising load projections, stalled decarbonization progress, and delayed fossil fuel retirements. For co-ops navigating G&T contract decisions and their own resource planning, understanding these national trends helps contextualize local pressures around capacity adequacy, renewable tax credit phase-outs, and regulatory uncertainty.
The analysis also highlights that delayed retirements and increased gas reliance, while common default choices, expose utilities to price volatility and long-term stranded asset risk. Co-ops can use this as a benchmarking tool to assess whether their own power supply trajectory aligns with emerging cost and climate expectations.
Key Takeaways
| › | Quarterly summary of projected electricity demand and emissions drawn from public utility IRPs. |
| › | Utilities updated in Q3 2025 increased projected load by 2.1% and emissions by 5.5%, driven largely by data center and large-load growth, a trend with direct implications for co-ops experiencing similar pressures. |
| › | The phase-out of federal renewable tax credits is now visibly reducing wind and solar capacity plans, making near-term financing and procurement decisions more consequential for co-ops. |
| › | Delayed fossil plant retirements are the most common response to near-term capacity shortfalls, but this approach locks in gas price exposure and slows emissions reductions. Alternatives exist and should be evaluated. |
| › | Improved large-load forecasting and clearer understanding of the distinction between reliability and dispatchability are identified as key planning reforms that could benefit co-ops and G&Ts alike. |
Implementation Considerations
- Cost or Funding Requirements: Co-ops relying on G&T power supply decisions should factor in how national trends toward delayed retirements and increased gas capacity may affect long-term wholesale costs. Advocacy for IRP reform at the G&T level may require staff time and coalition-building.
- Regulatory or Governance Considerations: Changes to MISO's seasonal accreditation rules and EPA greenhouse gas regulations are actively reshaping capacity decisions. Co-op leaders should ensure their G&T is monitoring and responding to these developments.
- Staffing or Technology Requirements: Smaller co-ops may lack internal capacity to track IRP trends independently; they will need resources that can serve as efficient proxies. Co-ops with direct planning responsibilities should evaluate whether their forecasting tools adequately account for large-load uncertainty and climate variability.
Notable Examples
- Santee Cooper (SC): IRP highlights the wide uncertainty range in large load forecasting, a model case for planning under uncertainty.
- El Paso Electric (NM): Renewable portfolio standards helped maintain accelerated zero-carbon capacity plans despite broader industry headwinds.
- Cleco Power (LA): Used MISO generator replacement process to repower a retired coal site with clean capacity, which is a potentially replicable strategy.
Estimated reading time: 30+ minutes
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